Laymans media
https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age
Academic source
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007875
Plain Language Summary Atmospheric methane’s unprecedented current growth, which in part may be driven by surging wetland emissions, has strong similarities to ice core methane records during glacial-interglacial “termination” events marking global reorganizations of the planetary climate system. Here we compare current and termination-event methane records to test the hypothesis that a termination-scale change may currently be in progress.
ABSTRACT
Atmospheric methane’s rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction of this atmospheric growth to increased natural emissions over the tropics, which appear to be responding to changes in anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements of 13Cch4 are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global methane budget is currently in disequilibrium and new inputs are as yet poorly quantified. Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change. A model comparison shows that recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane’s growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible that methane’s current growth is within the range of Holocene variability, but it is also possible that methane’s recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.
It’s been fun hanging with you guys. See you when the simulation resets
From article:
But in late 2006, something “very, very odd” happened, he said. Methane started rising again, but there was no dramatic shift in human activity to blame — and researchers were left scratching their heads. Then, in 2013, Nisbet and his colleagues realized this rise was accelerating. By 2020, methane was increasing at the fastest rate on record, he said.
From Wikipedia - Fracking in the United States:
Source link: http://www.economist.com/node/21556242 - Shale of the century - The “golden age of gas” could be cleaner than greens think
archive link: https://archive.is/dRIT - Article dated: Jun 2nd 2012
We’ve definitely set off methane deposits in the arctic, the ocean, the tropics, etc. But acting like there’s no way of knowing this could have happened or why is just stupid. The global shale oil boom set off by US development of new extraction technologies due to OPEC pressure, the use of which then spread around the globe is definitely a major contributing factor.
For the majority of the early phase of the fracking boom up to now, methane was vented as they were trying to maximize oil extraction. Pipelines and methane capture equipment were not in place in many locations and have only begun to be due to the rise in LNG prices resulting from Russian supply destabilization. Further, these were known risks at the time that were ignored with a concern only for maximizing oil production and profits.
This should surprise no one.
Further documentation:
Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere
The chemical signature of methane released from fracking is found in the atmosphere, pointing to shale gas operations as the culprit.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/fracking-boom-tied-to-methane-spike-in-earths-atmosphere
Archive link: https://archive.is/BvHZg#selection-4479.0-4483.133 - Article dated: Aug 15, 2019The reason this is more relevant and not just fracking stufff is this. Its added ON TOP OF THE FRACKING RELEASES! **
Isotopically lighter measurements of 13Cch4 are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands.**
Very true. And, the additional context of the abrupt phase is super valuable in telling us where we are in our current timeline of shifting climate patterns. There’s definitely important research here that significantly advances understanding.
It’s just the “scratching their heads”, ‘how could this have happened, it’s so unexpected’ bloviating that’s constantly prattled over in any of these articles… Drives me crazy. Should drive everyone crazy.
We’re in the midst of a seriously massive great extinction, quite possibly greater than the Chicxulub impact event, and researchers have been trying to put a stop to it for decades, sounding every alarm in the process. Everyone knew, but a small percentage of powerful people have driven us all headlong into the fire. Those most at fault even funded and then hid some of the most significant research into the topic years before the scale of it became wider public knowledge. We should be blaming, accepting blame and being stark in our declarations about what, in general at the very least, is happening, is about to happen and why. The constant hand waving is fucking bullshit.
Pulling back even further like a million years shows the “global reorganizations of the planetary climate system”. There was a regular pattern of ice ages and interglacial periods the Earth had fallen into, giving rise to stable periods, the last one being why we exist as we are and could develop agriculture and civilization. That pattern is over now thanks to the catalyst of human influence. The Earth will eventually settle into a new “normal”, but it will not be anything we are familiar with. It might be so different than even past hothouses that we can’t even draw from history thanks to the rate of change we’ve artificially sparked.
Yep. Buckle up.
About a year ago I was walking around with someone down near the river, just a nice place with open grass and some charming buildings off in the distance, and all of a sudden I started getting pretty emotional, like almost crying. She didn’t know me as a super-emotional guy and was confused, and I related to her what made me upset – basically, all of this is going away. In 50-100 years this little paradise place is gone. Guaranteed. I don’t know how long exactly it’ll be or what will be here instead, but it definitely won’t be this nice grass and the well-kept buildings and boats on the river.
I like the place, it’s wonderful; and it’s going away, not to come back. Not that long from now.
I’ve been feeling that for a little while too. I’m basically in a “enjoy it while you can” mindset. After fucking around for so long were about to find out, and probably quicker than people think.
But noobmaster69 in politics told me everything will be fine.
Yeah, well, maybe they’re an expert. Let’s see what their interests are in…
Looks like it’s entirely superheroes and video games. Yup, we’re fucked.
And when I’ve talked to those a fair amount older than me, and they tell me how my “nice” is incredibly sad and denuded and dead by the standards of what they remember… The short memory of mankind, our brief lifespans.
specifically the weather before WWI was said to be much more pleasant and reliable.
Happened to me in a grocery store. Not as romantic as yours.
"Landsailor
Deepwinter strawberry
Endless summer, ever spring
A vast preserve
Aisle after aisle in reach
Every commoner made a kingEarthbreaker
Noble and prized
Feed me beyond my means
Hello, worldmaker
Never deny
Build all my wildest dreams
But there’s a storm outside your door
I’m a child no more…"(Vienna Teng, “Landsailor”)
That was beautiful
thanks to the catalyst of human influence
My peripheral vision wisely read that as “cataclysm”.
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What’s delta carbon-13?
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but then about 15 years ago the isotopic signature sharply reversed course even as methane concentration started suddenly rising more rapidly. so something weird is going on these past two decades
The evidence points strongly to trapped methane being released by various environments undergoing a state change due to climate change - from the tropics to the poles. Wetlands do seem to be one of the largest contributors but they aren’t the only one as you point out.
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All good, it was a good comment and I was happy to connect the dots.
this is the clathrate gun, correct? so we’re utterly fucked?
The clathrate gun hypothesis is kind of specific. Methane, including clathrates, can help doom us without necessarily setting off the proverbial gun. We do already see emissions from clathrates but even so the gun hypothesis (for the near future) is currently unpopular because it’s not just about clathrates, it’s about a feedback system pertaining to them. To reiterate, though, clathrates are still a concern even without the gun being tirggered.
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thanks!
The big clathrate gun may not happen, it’s still just a theoretical. But what is happening is like constant little fireworks all the time going off…same long term effect really.
