• dudinax@programming.dev
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    10 months ago

    No you’re not wrong. There’s a reverse fallacy called the ludic fallacy: an unwarranted belief that the rules of the game describe how the game actually works.

    “Given a fair table, if red comes up 99 times in a row, what are the relative odds of getting red vs. black?”

    Mathematician, falling for the ludic fallacy: 1:1

    Realist: You’re wrong. The table isn’t fair. Red is more likely.

    However, people tend to underestimate how likely long runs are at a fair table.