In his starkest warning yet, President Zelenskyy said that "Ukraine will lose the war" to Russia if Congress does not act to send it more aid.
  • President Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine would lose the war if the US didn’t send it more aid.
  • House Republicans have been stalling on a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.
  • “It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that his country “will lose the war” against Russia if Congress does not act to send it more aid, Agence France-Presse reported.

“It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war,” he said, per AFP.

For months, House Republicans have stalled on a bill containing $60 billion in aid for Ukraine, stipulating that it should also include increased funding for security at the US southern border.

  • maynarkh@feddit.nlEnglish
    1·
    8 months ago

    This guy has sources and seems competent and well-regarded. He also is not a click-grabbing clickbaity rah-rah Ukraine person.

    TL;DW seems to be (correct me if I’m reading it wrong here):

    • Russia has a higher production number on their main calibre dumb artillery shells than the West since they had factories where they just had to ramp up production by extending shifts in their existing plants
    • The West was not prepared for this kind of war, so they don’t manufacture main calibre dumb artillery shells at this rate, as their doctrine does not prescribe their use, they prefer air superiority tactics
    • However, both the EU and the US are ramping up main calibre shell production with each scheduled to be where Russia is at now in 18 months (if combined, they will surpass it in 12)
    • In the meantime the Czech have managed to get together a sizeable stop-gap shipment by buying from the open market using joint EU funds
    • Also, Russia has a serious problem with artillery, with the actual cannons, as their arsenal seems to be transforming from a mostly mobile self-propelled one to one dominated by towed units, with alarmingly many WWII D-10 guns, which have an effective range of 10km with very bad accuracy
    • Finally, even though Russia is producing a lot of shells, they are using even more, with them saying they need 4 million per year to sustain what they are doing now, but only producing 1.5 million per year, with a 3 million shell stockpile

    All that says that Russia has a head start on shell production and stockpiles, but it’s getting used up, while the Ukrainians need to hold on, and if both the EU and the US come through, they will be in a shell advantage by this time next year, if either the US or the EU loses political will (khm Trump), they will still be okay by end of next year-ish. On the other side, victories like Avdiivka are not sustainable for Russia either, neither manpower nor production-wise, but they can get a lot of support from China, so that may tilt stuff their way. It’s still all up in the air.