Democratic strategist David Axelrod wrote on social media after President Biden’s Thursday night press conference that his odds of winning the presidential race this fall are “very very slim.”
Axelrod said Biden’s team “has not been very candid” with the president after Biden at the presser said no poll or person is telling him he cannot win in November.
All good points, I’m not necessarily saying Nate’s is better, just that the fivethirtyeight model is probably different from past years.
There’s also the economist which shows Trump a 3/4 favorite. I have little knowledge of their methods or history so take that with a grain of salt but it’s worth considering.