Summary
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has named Vice President Kamala Harris as the narrow favorite to win the presidential race on Election Day, shifting from former President Donald Trump for the first time since October 17.
Harris’s lead is razor-thin, with FiveThirtyEight’s model showing her winning 50 out of 100 simulations compared to Trump’s 49. Similarly, Nate Silver’s model in The Silver Bulletin also slightly favors Harris, giving her a win in 50.015% of cases.
Both forecasts emphasize the unprecedented closeness of this race, with Pennsylvania as a key battleground.
The Nate Silver model (at least) puts in a bunch of “corrections” for poll quality and historical bias from individual pollsters.
So you’re really playing a second or third level game of “Did Nate (or your other poll aggregator) correct for all the effects and biases, or did they miss something important?”
And we will never be able to validate if these odds are accurate or not, because this specific election will never be replayed again.