This is one to watch as opposed to all those nonsense national polls talking about which person is ahead or behind, we don’t have a national election, we have 50 state elections.
In 2020 Biden won 306 to 232 Electoral College votes.
If he maintains all other states, but loses Georgia and Michigan, that would put him at 274, President by 4 votes.
I know, I know, “a win is a win”, but when you consider the minimum number of EC votes per state is 3, winning by 4 is not a lot of wiggle room. Pretty much any other flippable state would throw it to Trump.
So, yeah, forget the national polls.
Watch Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Watch Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
If those two fall, it takes +1. Pennsylvania? Wisconsin? Nevada? Arizona? New Mexico?
No one is leading or trailing, because no one has voted.
Polls are not even a little bit predictive this far out.
Polls contain no actionable data for voters unless they are looking days before the election and want to strategically vote in a race with more than 2 candidates.
This far out (end of 2015), Republicans thought Hillary was a shoe-in.
No incumbent thats polling as low as Biden is right now, at this time in their presidency, has ever won reeelection
Your response to a comment about polls being meaningless is to use “bUt mUh PoLlS!!!” logic to make an inference
Let that sink in for a second.
Op made a point that polls have no predictive value at this point. The responder posited that no president polling this low at this point has ever won. Why is the response not valid or not adding to the conversation?
What’s crazy is since only weak candidates get primaries, people act like a primary hurts incumbents.
This could all be fixed by Biden stepping aside, but he’d rather risk the whole country than do that
The DNC would rather risk the whole country than do that.
If the DNC told him “You’re too old, you can’t win, step aside”, he likely would.
If he was able to stand on his record a primary wouldn’t hurt them because people could see the results. Refusing a primary on an unpopular candidate is simple arrogance and ego. Biden needs to go
Red fascists try not to jerk off to the thought of ordinary fascists taking power challenge (NEVER BEEN DONE)
Remember GW Bush? All it takes is one event to flip public sentiment. This poll is garbage for anyone who isn’t a political scientist or a campaign strategist.
Should’ve gotten rid of the electoral college years ago.
It’s a relic from a time when only land owners could vote and pretty much only white men could own land.
Oh, goodie. Fivethirtyeight, which has gotten it wrong the last several times and which no longer has the founder or his model (i.e. under new management).
Totally accurate predictions a fucking year out, I’m sure. /s
Remindme 1 year
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Those grim numbers partially reflect softness among his base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy.
Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.
A similar share of Michigan voters, 46%, say that the criminal charges Trump faces relating to efforts to overturn the last presidential election are disqualifying if true, with an additional 14% saying they would, at a minimum, cast doubts on his fitness for the job.
Likely GOP primary voters, though, mostly say that even if true, the criminal charges Trump is facing related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election are not relevant to his fitness for the presidency (64% in Michigan and 70% in Georgia feel that way).
It is possible the GOP field could narrow after the first contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and in both of the states polled, hypothetical one-on-one matchups with either DeSantis or Haley find Trump expanding his majority support rather than a tightened race.
About 7 in 10 registered voters in Michigan, and a similar 68% in Georgia, say they’re at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in next year’s election.
The original article contains 2,064 words, the summary contains 239 words. Saved 88%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
