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Cake day: June 21st, 2023

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  • It was already spreading from mammal to mammal. IRC there was that Mink farm last year and I think seals too. There were also cases of H5N1 jumping from birds to humans.

    Given H5N1 can make the jump from birds to mammals(including humans), and from mammals to mammals, it’s not a huge shock that it’s made the jump to humans from other mammals.

    H1N1 killed 50-100 million people, so the danger has always been there, and scientists have been warning about it for decades. For example, here’s a journal article from almost twenty years ago discussing this scenario:

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1096898













  • You don’t need to poll everyone to get relatively accurate polling results.

    I have a related degree, it is possible with the necessary caveats, margins of error and confidence intervals. Statistics is a wonderful thing.

    This being said, I actually read the full 77 page document they linked to, and if I’m not mistaken the 55% comes from a 2021 telephone poll. Obviously phone only polls are likely to be biased, even if you correct for demographic factors like age.

    Then again, inflation is a problem.


  • I have a related degree.

    The study was conducted for CNN via web and telephone on the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults ages 18 or older recruited using probability-based sampling techniques.

    BUT…

    In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.

    Relevant bit:

    Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the August 3-6, 2017 survey and ending with the April 21-26, 2021 survey are from polls conducted by SSRS via telephone only

    TLDR: doubt those polls are representative.