Tariffs that went on long enough would force manufacturing to be done in the US. And wages would have to rise

When the tariff is on final consumer products, these are two opposing forces. Higher wages mean companies would more likely save money by paying the tariffs. Higher tariffs mean companies are more likely to purchase domestically.

But if the tariffs are on precursor products (e.g. steel, lumber, oil, etc …) rather than final consumer goods: the tariffs make it more expensive for domestic manufacturing. The US manufacturer has to pay the tariffs to use the materials they need to produce their final product, and have to pass those costs on. That means there’s less margin for wages.

There’s been a recession start in every single republican presidential term of my life. I’m over 40. Each of Reagan’s terms. HW Bush. Each of the second Bush (these were the worst, dot-com crash and the great recession starting in 2007/8). And then the great Covid bungling. As you point out: if they implement their agenda it’s likely to happen again.

There has never been a recession start during a democratic president in my lifetime (although Biden’s term came close).

The opposition needs to be ready to jump on this and yell from the figurative rooftops so conservatives can’t spin it away. And it needs to be most heavily broadcast where the electorate shifted to the right this election. The fact that people generally think republicans are better for the economy is a severe failure on the part of the democrats.

Hopefully they actually vote.

I feel like we heard this same sentiment 4 years ago, and yet here we are.

Also use a towel or cloth on top of the rubber band so it’s gentler on your hand / skin.

Why it works: this fixes the problem of poor friction; metal doesn’t grip well against skin (especially if your hand is wet or oily). The rubber band grips well against the metal of the lid and your skin (or towel).

60% Local; 30% All; 10% Subscribed (still building out my subscribed list)

Use a secret manager?

Cert is a secret, add a small agent to your containers that pings your secret manager and gets back the current cert. Then saves / imports it (or whatever is appropriate).

So if the difference is corporate consolidation… Sounds like that’s the real underlying issue then, not automation.

Economics has well established that monopolistic behavior by firms harms consumers & the overall economy (that’s why we have anti-trust laws in the first place).

Don’t conflate the one problem with another, as I agree the erosion of anti-trust laws is a bad thing and needs to be reversed. But that doesn’t mean firms further automating things is now also bad.

I’d also say “automation affecting the whole economy at once” isn’t unique. The industrial revolution was not isolated to one industry, its effects were economy-wide. Also true for the transportation revolution (trains & steam boats moved everything), telecommunications, and the internet…

If you’re not aware, look up the automation paradox: https://ideas.ted.com/will-automation-take-away-all-our-jobs/

Every* automation advancement has lead to an increase in employment, not decrease. Most often jobs in the immediate sector are lost, but the rise in supporting sector jobs are bolstered.

Classic examples are the cotton mill and combine harvester. The number of agricultural workers declined, but the number of jobs processing agricultural product increased. Or with ATMs, the number of tellers needed per bank location decreased, but the total employment in the banking sector increased (banks opened more branches, namely in places where it was previously cost prohibitive).

As more things are automated, what’s being automated becomes cheaper and more prolific, often increasing (or creating) new opportunities. There are so many historic examples of this, it’s hard to justify “this time is different” predictions… Even for things like AI automating white collar jobs.

*Edit: almost every. It depends a bit on how you count the secondary jobs, and where those are located (automation combined with offshoring results in a net decline in some countries, but increase overall).

A photo op that would be so easy to arrange…

Check out Fez if you haven’t already. Also Tunic does a great job of starting out basic & breaking precedent.

Hackers and hobbiests will persist despite any economics. Much of what they do I don’t see AI replacing, as AI creates based off of what it “knows”, which is mostly things it has previously ingested.

We are not (yet?) at the point where LLM does anything other than put together code snippets it’s seen or derived. If you ask it to find a new attack vector or code dissimilar to something it’s seen before the results are poor.

But the counterpoint every developer needs to keep in mind: AI will only get better. It’s not going to lose any of the current capabilities to generate code, and very likely will continue to expand on what it can accomplish. It’d be naive to assume it can never achieve these new capabilities… The question is just when & how much it costs (in terms of processing and storage).

The reality of Texas green energy is so detached from the political rhetoric from politicians… The state making the most wind energy has leaders in the capital demonizing it while the state finances (and citizens) clearly benefit. I wish the voters of Texas paid more attention and called out such obvious gaslighting :(

https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child

Usually these costs are including education and childcare. In the US you can easily expect to pay around $1K / Month for full time child care between the ages of 6 months and 5 years (when they’ll start public school). Here’s a recent summary for major cities in Texas reflecting that amount: https://tootris.com/edu/blog/parents/child-care-in-texas-can-cost-up-to-10000/

That’s over $40K just in childcare costs before entering school. Now, many people don’t have to pay this because they have family (or a non-working spouse) who assist; but from a cost perspective it’s fair to include.

Add on to that food, clothing and such… between ages it’s easy to see how some estimates can reach over $200K through age 18.

This is great momentum; especially if it helps down ballot Colin Allred defeat Ted Cruz for the senate. Some polling has him within 5 points (or even tied in a few polls earlier this year). It’s a bit of a stretch; but Texas is notorious for it’s low voter turnout. Moving a few % of this non-voting population to feel like their vote matters & get them to show up would be enough to shift these races!

VIX under 20 isn’t a warning… The stock market valuation indicator I agree with: stocks are a bit over valued right now. But over valued just means we need a correction… not whether it will be a mild or severe one.

What’s more troubling is the market reacting already to nonsense trump comments. From the caption in the linked article:

The latest market sell-off was partly triggered by former President Donald Trump’s comments on Taiwan and tariffs.

Does no one else remember the dumpster fire that was the markets jumping at every comment and policy flip-flop during his four year term? The same volatility indicator (VIX) regularly jumped over 20 after some dumb trade policy comment…

I guess we get used to all the announcements being “Biden-Harris” now?

Your vote is sending a signal to future elections. If Ohio has a 20-point red margin, it’s unlikely to get any attention from blue candidates. If it has a 5% margin, that changes, and suddenly the next campaign considers spending time & money to try and move the needle.

Remember the old Roman adage: “you’re not defeated until you admit defeat”. If you don’t vote: you’ve lost. If you vote, you might still lose that election but there’s a better chance to win in the future.

Both strengthening relations with Russia recently too.

Reference Modi’s recent trip to Moscow: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd91pe5r9go