I don’t think it’s a question of “keep coming back”. Whether he wins or loses, he won’t leave. I want to be clear I am prognosticating, not advocating, but I feel strongly that the next election will lead to some kind of violence - regardless of outcome.
Or trump fails and continues to try, continuing the erosion of the Republican parties ability to win elections. Sure, some places move right but the majority of America moves left and the Dems start to move left too because of it.
Sure, there may be violence but that’s not the same as a civil war and likely will be quickly quelled. 1/6 was amateur hour but it was scary how easily it still was allowed to happen.iy won’t be allowed in the same way again, but it’s important to prosecute those responsible for round 1, in order to not get multiple rounds after.
My hunch is that if the Republican Party implodes, anything but a symbolic leftward shift by the Democrat party will be halted by a flow of money from donors.
Any real change won’t happen without overturning citizens united.
The biggest thing that kills countries or societies is revolts. China is experimenting to see if they can hold back revolts using technology to control citizens. We will have to wait and see if it works or instead creates a bigger tipping point.
For those in power before, war allowed them to increase their riches. As economies have become more interdependent, war hinders wealth generation, apart from on the military industrial complex. The incentive for war is less. That’s the whole point of the EU, the marshall plan and globalisation efforts in general. It seems to be working. Putins position is more precarious than before the war. Trump is less liked overall, but does have more youth support than previously. That may be a side effect of youth growing up knowing no difference. 20 year old voters now were kids before he was a politician.
Look at current hardship with cost of living increases after the pandemic. Things are hard and it’s starting to stabilize but it’s less widespread hardship than, say, the great recession after Spanish flu. There is a rose in populism and authoritarianism worldwide but there has not yet been the same backwards jump in living standards.
If Trump is successful, I think he’ll struggle to do much. He’s old and it’s dangerous but he’s self interested, so as soon as it’s hard he gives up and leaves it to others. If he loses, his power within politics diminishes more. The Republicans can try to shake him off and risk him weakening them or continue as now and go down with him. They will weaken either way, as has already been happening. I’m optimistic that we are indeed at one of those turning points in humanity. I wonder if the rise of ai and self driving will free many from work and truly lead to a post scarcity society. It all depends on how we distribute the spoils.
I was watching the talking head shows last night at someone raised a good point:
McCarthy was only good at fundraising, that was his strength.
After 1/6, corporate donations for the insurrection candidates dropped off a cliff, and without that fundraising, McCarthy literally has nothing.
I can see that. Given the actions of the current Speaker, I don’t see the party changing back any time soon.
Nope, it’s going to take a full implosion before anything changes, and if Trump loses in '24, he’ll keep coming back until he wins or dies.
I don’t think it’s a question of “keep coming back”. Whether he wins or loses, he won’t leave. I want to be clear I am prognosticating, not advocating, but I feel strongly that the next election will lead to some kind of violence - regardless of outcome.
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Or trump fails and continues to try, continuing the erosion of the Republican parties ability to win elections. Sure, some places move right but the majority of America moves left and the Dems start to move left too because of it.
Sure, there may be violence but that’s not the same as a civil war and likely will be quickly quelled. 1/6 was amateur hour but it was scary how easily it still was allowed to happen.iy won’t be allowed in the same way again, but it’s important to prosecute those responsible for round 1, in order to not get multiple rounds after.
My hunch is that if the Republican Party implodes, anything but a symbolic leftward shift by the Democrat party will be halted by a flow of money from donors.
Any real change won’t happen without overturning citizens united.
I’d be fine if the Democrats became the conservative party without changing a single policy goal. A new party can emerge to their left.
deleted by creator
The biggest thing that kills countries or societies is revolts. China is experimenting to see if they can hold back revolts using technology to control citizens. We will have to wait and see if it works or instead creates a bigger tipping point.
For those in power before, war allowed them to increase their riches. As economies have become more interdependent, war hinders wealth generation, apart from on the military industrial complex. The incentive for war is less. That’s the whole point of the EU, the marshall plan and globalisation efforts in general. It seems to be working. Putins position is more precarious than before the war. Trump is less liked overall, but does have more youth support than previously. That may be a side effect of youth growing up knowing no difference. 20 year old voters now were kids before he was a politician.
Look at current hardship with cost of living increases after the pandemic. Things are hard and it’s starting to stabilize but it’s less widespread hardship than, say, the great recession after Spanish flu. There is a rose in populism and authoritarianism worldwide but there has not yet been the same backwards jump in living standards.
If Trump is successful, I think he’ll struggle to do much. He’s old and it’s dangerous but he’s self interested, so as soon as it’s hard he gives up and leaves it to others. If he loses, his power within politics diminishes more. The Republicans can try to shake him off and risk him weakening them or continue as now and go down with him. They will weaken either way, as has already been happening. I’m optimistic that we are indeed at one of those turning points in humanity. I wonder if the rise of ai and self driving will free many from work and truly lead to a post scarcity society. It all depends on how we distribute the spoils.
Maybe you shouldn’t base you worldview on decades old fantasy novels.
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Who are you quoting?
It’ll be the latter