Donald Trump’s campaign insists that they’re pursuing multiple strategies against Kamala Harris, but the true picture that is emerging is that the Trump senior advisers’ grand plan, for now, is to pray that the former US president has a good night at the presidential debate next month.
The game plan, in other words, has become one of hoping that Trump wins the debate so they can regain momentum – a stunning approach that shows the serious predicament for Trump and his campaign as he struggles to find ways to land effective attacks against the vice-president just months before the election.
What has happened internally in the Trump campaign in recent weeks is the realization that nothing they do in the period up to the debate is likely to cut through in a significant way that blunts Harris’s gains that have her level in key swing state polls, according to people close to the matter.
And because they don’t think the messaging will cut through, senior advisers are left hoping that Trump can energize voters with his performance on stage, the people said.
As the article says, she is only level in key swing states. While 538 does give her good chances overall, they also gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning. It is closer than it should be so make sure to get it and vote and make sure that your friends do too.
they also gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning
And before people go off about polling and such let me reframe 70% in anticipation: would you play Russian Roulette with a 3 barrel gun?
I think a 10 chamber revolver with 3 random bullets (swing states) is a better analogy, and gets you to 70% I think, instead of 66.666.
I don’t want to play either though. So I’m going to vote against racism and fascism like we all should.
I was approximating for simplicity/emphasis lol
Nate Silver notes that while her projected popular vote share has increased over the last ten days, her odds of winning the electoral college has actually gone down slightly, to about 47%. This indicates that a lot of the support she has gained has disproportionately come from states she was already likely to win.
Basically, until we get more data, we can see a small convention bounce in the polling, which typically fades. If her battleground-state numbers reflect that temporary bounce, then she’s even with Trump right now and may potentially fade back to slightly behind in the coming weeks.
The general message is this: Harris has momentum, but that doesn’t change the fact that even with momentum, it’s basically a dead heat. Despite all the celebratory gusto recently, at best she’s one mistake away from losing. At worst, she’s on track to execute a flawless campaign that still ends with her winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college. No one should be breathing easily.
And that’s without factoring in all the voter suppression/purges and other state-level activities of the Republicans to win battleground states, which the Democrats have done basically fuck-all about.
Hoping the Republicans don’t do illegal and/or unethical things to win is a losing strategy. This is a candidate that tried to have his VP hanged for not subverting the entire democratic process.
All true. I feel like the Arlington scandal has legs, though.
To decent people, maybe. These are trump supporters.
I’m going with professor Alan Lictman. He is batting 1,000 in presidential elections.
Donald Trump right now
Doesn’t matter. Go out and vote.
She’s a former prosecutor. He’s a compulsive liar, misogynist and racist former reality TV star with dementia who isn’t used to being told to wait his turn before he can speak.
He better pray to every god he can come up with.
Harris didn’t do well in 2020 (edit: 2019) though. She was very uncharismatic. To her credit, she seems to have worked on that a lot since then.
She clearly struggled with the primary but has learned a lot in 5 years and a general is a very different ballgame.
She’s also the nominee with all the DNC money and backing. She will have the best consultants, advisors, resources, etc, and she strikes me as the sort of person who listens to constructive feedback. In the primary, she was working against a lot of the best people in the Democratic party. She now has everyone behind her pushing forward, which is entirely different from trying to pull out ahead of a pack.
In the primary, she was on stage with Biden and Bernie and Warren and Klobuchar and Buttigieg and Yang and Beto and Booker and Castro and Gabbard and at least three other people nobody remembers. Some of those people are better speakers, some are better debaters, some have better records, some are better leaders, some have better ideas, and almost all of them are not entirely batshit insane.
She now only has to debate Donald Trump. She is a better speaker, better debater, better leader, has a better record, has better ideas, and will be the only candidate on stage who isn’t entirely batshit insane. She will also be the only candidate on stage that isn’t a racist. The only one who isn’t a convicted felon. The only one who isn’t a rapist. The only candidate who didn’t incite an assault on the Capitol building to stop an election. The only candidate who isn’t misogynist. The only candidate who hasn’t sold state secrets to an enemy government. The only candidate who hasn’t committed a felony at Arlington National Cemetery.
Plus she likes dogs.
she strikes me as the sort of person who listens to constructive feedback.> Is there a particular event or thing I can look up that she did to give you that impression?
I would say her general demeanor, her presentation style, if you compare her to 2020, she has clearly gotten better at speaking and energizing a crowd. She seems more polished, more self-aware. I don’t know if she was leaning towards Shapiro, but if rumors are to be believed, she listened to feedback from progressives and chose Walz. Plus, y’know, she’s a rational adult who isn’t a malignant narcissist or raging egomaniac.
I wouldn’t say Trump has much charisma left either.
I agree, plus people are generally tired of him. He rode a transient wave in 2016 but things are different now.
Trump came very close to winning in 2020. Progress is good, but we have a very long way to go, and an alarming number of Americans who still support him.
Only because of the EC. He got massacred in the popular.
So? The popular doesn’t matter.
I think the point is that any candidate would come close because of the EC. You could put a red hat on George of the Jungle and he’d come close.
Yeah but he has a cult behind him who takes every one of his words as gospel
He needs more than them to win.
Not really. EC path is still a toss up right now.
Don’t worry all the “leftists” on lemmy are working overtime to get him elected as well
While that’s all true, they’re functionally tied. Think about that.
A large percentage of the United States are really really fucking stupid. It’s alarming.
Yeah but she has the edge in that “tie” and she has all the momentum
I wouldn’t bet your ovaries on it.
She’s a former prosecutor. He’s a compulsive liar, misogynist and racist former reality TV star with dementia who isn’t used to being told to wait his turn before he can speak.
And together they fight grime?
Sounds like the premise to a zany sitcom
She’s a former prosecutor. He’s a compulsive liar
People developing some real blinkered views of the trustworthiness of prosecutors, all of a sudden. John Corbyn, Greg Abbott, and Ken Paxton are all current/former AGs and they lie like it’s breathing.
They’re saying that speaking in a formal setting to convince people of stuff was literally her whole deal for 90% of her career, not that she won’t lie.
Trustworthiness is not even slightly what people mean by that. What they’re talking about is her having exceptional debating skills because that’s what you do in a courtroom.
Oh thank goodness. I love a debator that isn’t trustworthy
It’s about being able to form cogent arguments and rebuttals while publicly speaking. It has nothing to do with trustworthiness.
I keep asking you this and you keep refusing to answer, but I’ll ask you again: Who should Americans vote for president in November?
It’s about being able to form cogent arguments and rebuttals while publicly speaking.
This isn’t Lincoln-Douglas at the Harvard Yacht Club. People aren’t tuning in to make up their minds.
Modern presidential debates are just nationally syndicated The Dozens. People tune in to heckle the people they hate and cheer the ones they love.
Past that, which debate in Harris’s last nine years on the national stage made her look cogent? She’s been at this since 2015. Her claim to fame right now is “You didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree” followed by nervous laughter.
Who should Americans vote for president in November?
I’m being told it all rides on this next televised shouting match, so I guess we’ll have to watch the debate to find out.
I didn’t ask who will they vote for.
I asked who should they vote for.
Who should Americans vote for in November? In your personal opinion.
I asked who should they vote for.
Isn’t that what the debate is supposed to answer? If you go into the debate already having made up your mind, why watch?
Who should Americans vote for in November? In your personal opinion.
I must remain undecided until I have heard both candidates fully advance their respective cases.
You are being highly dishonest now. You know exactly where both Trump and Harris stand on issues. Don’t suddenly pretend you’re politically naive.
There is a stark difference between the two candidates. Why can’t you just say who people should vote for?
But if you really want to play this game, do you pledge to tell me who you believe people should vote for when the debate is over?
Dude. You’re getting trolled like a bridge. Just stop engaging.
You know exactly where both Trump and Harris stand on issues.
Then why do we care about the results of the debate? You want to see Brat Girl Kamala deliver Epic Owns on Trump because… it makes you feel good? Or because you think it will actually win over voters?
There is a stark difference between the two candidates.
There’s certainly a stark difference in their marketing.
But if you really want to play this game, do you pledge to tell me who you believe people should vote for when the debate is over?
I’m saving my decision for Voting Day. Last month Kamala wasn’t even at the top of the ticket. How can I tell you who I’m going to vote for when Demolition Ranch has millions of subscribers and Trump is still doing public speaking events?
You are an imbecile
Type faster comrade otherwise you’re on a bus to Kursk! 🌻🌻
As long as Kamala actually provides details on how she plans to solve problems she will already have won. Trump refuses to explain anything he plans on doing, probably because he knows it will either show that he is in it for power, or that he doesn’t have a clue what he is doing. Probably both. His only strategy is to insult his opponent, and I think he is struggling to find attacks on Kamala that will stick. She’s not as easy of a target as Biden is.
Thing is… his approach to campaigning has been consistent since 2016, and he won that election. Just saying “he refuses to explain his platform, he can’t possibly win” is a mistake. The reality is that the people who vote for him don’t care. I don’t really understand what it is they see in him, but it’s clear that it has nothing to do with how intelligent or articulate he is.
He did have a lot to say about Clinton though, and most of his mud slinging stuck with the voters. Although you’re right that with the MAGAs it doesn’t matter, but I do feel that there must be many MAGA people that aren’t in too deep and their faith in Trump is being chipped away at.
The Democratic base and the Republican base are two very different voters.
Democrats care more about the details of a plan. They want to understand how it’s all going to come together.
Republican base…they just don’t want you to be a Democrat.
Let’s not equate these two voting blocs.
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I’m partial to the pic on the article myself. ;)
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The dog is cute af, but I still stand by this one.
Plus, Trump hates dogs and uses ‘dog’ as an insult.
Dogs are amazing and wonderful. Trump is not.
According to some rumors, he’s not even house trained.
Coincidentally, the least trainable dog I have ever met was an Italian greyhound like the one in your picture.
I had an Italian greyhound who was by far the smartest dog I ever owned.
And she was 100% untrainable. She was a genius, but she was also the most stubborn creature in the planet.
She also loved to cuddle, but only if it was her demanding it of you. If you saw her coming to the couch to hop up fornsxritches and invited her up, she’d walk away because she was NOT going to obey.
Well I mean, yeah. Look at that thing not a thought in it’s head. But I’ll bet it’s way nicer than the orange idiot.
Why “praying”? He’s still statistically in a dead heat and less behind than either 2016 or 2020. Vote. Vote because your democracy depends upon it.
'Tots and pears folks.
'Tots and pears.
The Harris camp is in a good spot, but I still have band-aids from the wounds that Biden left after he was picking his tongue up off the floor at the last debate. I was optimistic until he royally fucked that up and before the debate his supporters thought he would wipe the floor with Trump.
I have hope, but I am cautiously aware of the fact that Trump sways voters with his bullshit. Kamala can fuck this up too as much as I don’t want to see that.
No, that’s just the only strategy they’ll admit to. They have the supplemental strategy of taking over the election apparatus in swing states like Georgia, so even if Harris wins more votes there they can ratfuck it in Trump’s favor anyway.
If his team were actually smart they’d realize that lightning won’t strike twice and keep Trump’s mouth shut and keep him far away from the debate stage. Kamala will rip him apart in September, no doubt in my mind.
The only reason he didn’t get a ton of criticism for his insanity at the last debate is because Biden was somehow worse and distracted everybody from Trump’s failing mental health and complete lack of a plan of action to fix the problems he rants and raves about all day and night.
Lol Biden wasn’t worse. Trump was worse and it wasn’t even in the same ball park. Biden was just surprising.
Just because you’re used to it doesn’t mean it wasn’t objectively and obviously worse.
Don’t worry fam, I gotchu. Regards, God.
Has we won a debate?
Depends on your point of view. Either he won the last one or Biden lost it. But, now the script is flipped and he’s an old weirdo. 😄
Don’t worry, the media will handicap him so hard he cannot possibly lose unless he literally shits himself more than once.
